Papyrus Gonolek: downlist to Least Concern?

Dear All,

This is to kindly request you to comment on or suggest someone who may be able to comment on the proposed change in Red List status of Papyrus Gonolek (see below). The Deadline is Monday 19^th August 2013. You may directly contribute through the online forum at http://www.birdlife.org/globally-threatened-bird-forums/2013/01/papyrus-gonolek-laniarius-mufumbiri-downlist-to-least-concern/ or reply to this email to me and the copied colleagues (Andy and Joe). Even a very brief comment is welcome, especially in relation to status in sites you are familiar with.

With thanks

Kariuki

Papyrus Gonolek (Laniarius mufumbiri): downlist to Least Concern?

Posted on January 16, 2013 by Lynda Donaldson

BirdLife species factsheet for Papyrus Gonolek

Papyrus Gonolek Laniarius mufumbiri has a local distribution in north-eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, eastern Rwanda, Burundi and western Kenya. It is listed as Near Threatened under criterion B1ab(iii) of the IUCN Red List because it was thought to have a moderately small range, restricted to papyrus swamps, in which it is potentially threatened by the modification and degradation of wetlands.

However, the species’s population has been estimated to be approximately 2 million adults (Maclean 2004), roughly equivalent to 3 million individuals in total, and the population is suspected to be stable in the absence of evidence for any declines or substantial threats. In addition, mapping of the species’s range has resulted in an estimated Extent of Occurrence (EOO) of c.99,000 km². As a result, the Papyrus Gonolek may not in fact approach the thresholds for classification as Vulnerable under the current criteria, and instead warrant downlisting to Least Concern.

Information is requested on the population size, range and trend of this species, and comments on the proposed downlisting are welcome.

Reference:

Maclean, I. M. D. (2004) An ecological and socio-economic analysis of biodiversity conservation of East African wetlands. PhD Thesis. University of East Anglia, Norwich.

Andy Symes says:

April 24, 2013 at 5:23 pm

Maclean et al. 2013 show that, between 1984–1987 and 1999–2001 the areal extent of papyrus declined by 6.7 % from 1,643 to 1,532 km2. The authors recommend that Papyrus Gonolek should remain at Near Threatened, but on the basis of past population decline (A2c) rather than a small and decreasing range size.

Papyrus Gonolek was estimated to have decreased by 20.62% (7.69-42.50% 80% CI) over three generations, based on comparison of data from 1984-1987 and 1999-2001. Rates of population decline were estimated by assuming that relationships between density, occurrence and habitat variables derived from 1999–2001 data, were the same in 1984–1987, and assumed a constant geometric annual rate of decline.

Classification as Near Threatened is recommended by Maclean et al. since there is a high degree of uncertainty over the estimated rate of decline and thus although the best estimate of 20.62% does not closely aproach the threshold for classification as Vulnerable under the A criterion, it is plausible that the rate of decline could approach or even exceed this threshold.

Maclean I. M. D., Bird, J. P., Hassall, M. 2013. Papyrus swamp drainage and the conservation status of their avifauna. Wetlands Ecology and Management. DOI 10.1007/s11273-013-9292-8