Dear Kenyan Birders,
I have just updated the post - on 31 May at 0845 GMT.

http://afrotropical.posterous.com/is-a-natural-east-africa-going-going-gone

Please would you care to take a look at the rather worrying Russian  
report just-in regarding an absence of Red-backed Shrikes.
It's from Konstantin Mikhailov - who has watched the River Oka for the  
past five years. The Oka is a tributary of the Volga, on the southern  
border of Moscow region.

Best of birding to you all,
James

I've added the following note from here in Tanzania as well; please,  
any comments at all from Kenya would be most welcome (!!):

Recent ENSO/IOD Events and their effects upon East Africa

1997-1998: +IOD/El Niño [most intense ENSO event ever recorded] -  
locals say: "it rained all year" severe flooding across Kenya/Tanzania
1998-1999: +IOD/El Niño - some continuation of above conditions -
1999-2000:
2000-2001:
2001-2002:
2002-2003: neutral (?)/El Niño
2003-2004:
2004-2005:
2005-2006:
2006-2007:+IOD/El Niño - flooding in Tanzania; the short 'vuli' rains  
continued from November well into the New Year of 2007
2007-2008:+IOD/La Niña [NB: the only other recorded instance of this  
combination was in 1967] - wet into April 2008 in Tz
2008-2009: neutral (?)/La Niña
2009-2010: El Niño (slight)
2010-2011: La Niña (moderate - ended in May 2011)

IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole

NB:
In the two boreal winter seasons between 2006 - and - 2008 (both were  
+IOD/El Niño events) certain species, which typically winter in  
considerable numbers only well to the south of the central plateau of  
Tanzania, e.g.
Amur Falcon, Corncrake, Red-backed Shrike and Thrush Nightingale were  
present in the Arusha area throughout the 'wintering' season. In  
addition wintering species such as Common Swift and White-winged Black  
Tern were present in unusual abundance along the coast at Tanga.
This suggests that in wetter years some individuals of such species no  
longer 'feel the need' to follow the ITCZ into southern Africa. That,  
in effect, they "choose to fly less far to the south" and presumably  
therefore they benefit considerably from such wetter seasons. Unlike  
this two past "winter seasons"!