Hi all,

I'd just like to add to Neil's 'health warning' to these projections.
Neil's warnings come from his massive experience in the field and data
use side, my own perspective is from the statistical end, where I've a
bit of experience.

You may be aware that the largely the same team produced a book of
similar projections for European bird distributions:
http://www.lynxeds.com/product/climatic-atlas-european-breeding-birds.
The first chapter of this is essentially a health warning on the rest of
the book - but obviously no-one reads that. And I can't find a similar
warning on the African website. To cut a long story short, I research
the processes that shape species distribution limits and like to play
with statistical methods. I had access to the same European datasets the
Durham/RSPB team had, so I thought I'd check out their methods and see
if they really are finding anything other than chance associations
between climate and birds. The result of my efforts was published a
couple of years ago - it's at
http://www.pnas.org/content/105/39/14908.short?cited-by=yes&legid=pnas;105/39/14908
and I can send anyone interested the pdf if they want. In essence, we
find that the distributions of most European species are not
statistically significantly associated with climate and other things are
the main factor determining distribution - other species, human
activity, mountain barriers, coastlines, etc. And consequently, most of
the projections made in the atlas are completely unfounded. I know our
findings rather upset the team in Durham (and various others globally -
criticising an immensley popular method is a good way to make yourself
unpopular...), but no-one's come up with a solution to the problem we
identified in the last two years and this African project has exactly
the same statistical flaw as the European one. So, to add to Neil's call
- please do be very, very careful in interpreting these maps.

Best wishes,

Colin

(NB - the better the data available through atlas projects and the like,
the better we will be able to do this sort of thing properly, so please
make your birding count and send your records to the appropriate atlas!)

Neil and Liz Baker wrote:
> Paul and all
>
> I've just had a quick look at this, clicked on Cape Teal, a bird I have
> written about in some detail.
>
> Baker, N.E. 2003. A reassessment of the northern population of the Cape
> Teal /Anas capensis/. /Scopu/s 23: 29-43.
>
> This Worldmap data set is seriously flawed, as far as Cape Teal is
> concerned it's a work of pure fiction.
>
> Is this Worldmap data published in a peer reviewed paper ? reference please.
>
> Where did they get their original data from ? curious that Durham /
> BirdLife did not ask us for any data.
>
> Have they used recent data (unpublished) from the new Kenya Atlas or
> only the maps in Lewis & Pomeroy 1989 ?
>
> Did they have access to the raw data for the Uganda, Zambia, Malawi,
> Southern Africa, Liberia, Ghana, Ethiopia, Somalia (any others out
> there?) atlases
>
> How did they differentiate between known "range" and extralimital
> records ? The std atlases do not unless it's in the text. It's the same
> black blob for a single record as it is for a thousand.
>
> How did they differentiate between "old" literature records, many of
> which are specimens and are often incorrectly labeled with poor locality
> data and rather many identification errors.
>
> and...where did they get their "current" climate data from ? the Uganda
> Atlas habitat predictions uses data from only 16 rainfall stations and
> all of us working in Africa understand how inaccurate "government data"
> can be.
>
> Ken, I would strongly recommend you check carefully those species you
> are familiar with before you get too excited and most certainly before u
> even think about making recommendations to African governments regarding
> conservation issues based on these highly theoretical range changes.
>
> Neil
>
>
> Neil and Liz Baker, Tanzania Bird Atlas, P.O. Box 1605, Iringa, Tanzania.
> Mobiles: +255 776-360876 and +255 776-360864.
> http://tanzaniabirdatlas.com
> Subscribe to: tanzaniabirds-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* Kariuki Ndang'ang'a <ndanganga@yahoo.com>
> *To:* kenyabirdsnet <kenyabirdsnet@yahoogroups.com>; tanzaniabirds
> <tanzaniabirds@yahoogroups.com>; zambia birding
> <zambiabirds@yahoogroups.com>; rwanda-burundi birding
> <rwanda_burundiBirds@yahoogroups.com>; Kariuki
> <paul.ndanganga@birdlife.or.ke>
> *Sent:* Thu, 15 April, 2010 14:00:18
> *Subject:* [KENYABIRDSNET] Fw: BirdLIfe Announces the Africa Climate
> Exchange - Find out how your favourite birds wil be affected
>
> FYI - apologies for cross-posting
>
> ----- Forwarded Message ----
> *From:* Ken Mwathe <ken.mwathe@birdlife.or.ke>
> *To:* AfricanBirding@yahoogroups.com
> *Sent:* Wed, April 14, 2010 12:07:16 PM
> *Subject:* [AfricanBirding] BirdLIfe Announces the Africa Climate
> Exchange - Find out how your favourite birds wil be affected
>
>
>
> Dear Colleagues
>
>
>
> BirdLife International is pleased to announce the launch of the website
> on climate change issues for Africa www.africa-climate- exchange. org/
> <http://www.africa-climate-exchange.org/>
>
>
>
> The Africa Climate Exchange (ACE) is relevant for African policy makers,
> local communities, scientists and resource managers.
>
>
>
> ACE includes a rapidly growing library, currently containing over 400
> downloadable documents on a wide range of climate change topics.
>
>
>
> Up to date news on climate change from across Africa are available.
>
>
>
> For Birders!!
>
>
>
> The ACE contains over 1600 species maps showing how individual species
> they will be affected by climate change starting from Present, 2025,
> 2055 up to 2085.
>
>
>
> Just type the common, scientific or family name and there you have the
> maps! How exciting?
>
>
>
>
>
> cid:122100311@17022010-37BB
>
>
>
>
>
> *More on the site on our news release *
>
> *www.birdlife. org/news/ news/2010/ 02/africa_ climate_exchange .html*
> <http://www.birdlife.org/news/news/2010/02/africa_climate_exchange.html>
>
>
>
> Kindly let others know about this resource.
>
>
>
> Very Best.
>
>
>
> Ken
>
>
>
> *Ken Mwathe*
>
> *
> **BirdLife International | Africa Partnership Secretariat| ICIPE Campus,
> Kasarani| *
>
> *PO Box 3502 | 00100 GPO Nairobi | Kenya
> Tel: +254 (0)20 2473259|Office Mobile: +254 722 200538| +254 734 600905***
>
> *Fax: +254 (0)20 8562259 | Email*: *ken.mwathe@birdlife .or.ke*
> <mailto:ken.mwathe@birdlife.or.ke>* .**Skype*: *ken.mwathe* *Web**:
> **www.birdlife. org***
>
> *Mobile (Private):* *+254 733 92 61 91*
>
> P Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail
>
>
>
>
>
>

--

Dr Colin Beale
Research Fellow
University of York

Mob. +255 (0) 684 059 123